Dear readers,
This is the first post of a series of recurring posts that will discuss about recent IPOs, with the goal to assess if there is any interesting opportunity.
While I never invest in IPOs, as I consider these are asymmetric transactions in which sellers aim to maximize proceeds with the negative impact on investor’s returns, I do believe it’s interesting to track the new companies listed in the market.
This first edition focuses in the American market.
The IPO Party Is for the Sellers
Disclaimer. Please read full disclaimer at the end of the page before reading the article. This publication is only for information and entertainment purposes. It doesn’t constitute financial advice.
Please remember that nothing in this post is investment recommendation.
Methodology note. This post analyses every US IPO (SPACs excluded) priced between 16 April and 30 October 2026, using the 30 October 2026 closing price. Returns are measured from the IPO price, which is the best possible entry point and one that most retail investors never get. Figures come from public filings, company releases and the press; author estimates are flagged. Please read the full disclaimer at the end of the page.
Executive summary
Anthropic filed its S-1 on 26 October. If the press is right, it will try to raise c.$100bn at a $1.5-2 trillion valuation in the coming weeks.
It will be everywhere and it will be the second hottest IPO in the year, following Space X. OpenAI has decided to postpone IPO plans and will likely wait several quarters.
So before the noise starts, I wanted to look at the cold data.
What happened to the people who bought the IPOs of the last six months?
Investing in IPOs is not a great business, and YTD the numbers speak by themselves:
63% of the 78 IPOs trade below the IPO price. 49 out of 78.
The median IPO is down -11%. For those that have been listed at least one month, the median is -16%.
27 are down more than 25%, and 12 are down more than 50%. Several have been almost wiped out.
Weighted by the money raised (ex SpaceX and SK hynix), investors lost c.-19% while the S&P 500 went up c.+8%.
The hotter the story, the worse the result. Nuclear, geothermal, AI chips and quantum are down between -42% and -61% at the median. Boring biotechs are flat to positive.
And that is from the IPO price. If you bought Cerebras at the opening of its first day you are down -69%. SpaceX buyers at the peak are down -40%. So, drawdowns can be even higher.
This post analyze what happened during the 2026, the sectors and we will do a brief review of some interesting companies that could be analyzed in the future. I also prepared a spreadsheet with all US IPOs so you can have the back-up in case useful.
